Analysis: Iran protests 2019

Pressing sanctions and recalcitrant mullahs

In the throes of a threat to his country’s designs to dominate the region, Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, countenanced a sharp rise in the price of a commodity that Iranians hitherto obtained for a pittance: petrol. What happened next? All hell broke loose. As though fate hadn’t been sufficiently unkind to Iran, this move came in the backdrop of widespread protests in Lebanon and Iraq, both of them countries in which Iran has made deep inroads. Iran’s proxy group Hezbollah, political party and militant organisation, wields considerable clout in Lebanon. Iraq, as revealed by documents recently leaked to The Intercept, has come under Iran’s sway ever since U.S. troops left the country in 2011. While the causes of these protests are mainly economic, they are also seen as fulminations against the sinister influence of Iran in Iraq and Lebanon.

Economic woes

The reason this step was taken at such an unpropitious moment can be summarised in one word: sanctions. The U.S. campaign of ‘maximum pressure’ has imposed a de facto embargo on Iranian oil and pushed Iran’s economy to the brink. Exports of oil have fallen drastically from 2.5mn barrels per day (bpd) to less than 500,000 bpd and inflation has soared to 40%. The state reasons that the money collected through the price hike would be spent in welfare provisions for the poor. But some fear that rise in petrol prices would trickle down to other commodities including groceries and any benefits in the form of welfare would be nullified.

Grasping at straws to arrest the slide of its economy, Iran tried every trick in the book only to fail miserably. From urging the European signatories to the JCPOA ( Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the Iran Nuclear Deal, to come up with a mechanism to help it circumvent U.S. sanctions to breaching the restrictions laid out in the Nuclear Deal by progressively enriching its stockpile of uranium to shooting down a U.S. drone and bombing a bustling Saudi oil facility, all of its efforts to ameliorate the abysmal state of its economy has met with failure.

The fantasy of regime change 

As people from over 100 cities took to the streets protesting against the price hike, Khamenei called the protesters ‘thugs’ and gave the authorities the go-ahead to use force to quell the demonstrations. Meanwhile, hawks in Washington are salivating at the prospect of a regime change in Iran. While the policy of ‘maximum pressure’ has borne fruit in the sense that it has made the sustenance of Iran’s economy precarious, any thought of regime change in the near future is premature. It is true that discontent with the regime is rife in Iran. But toppling Khamenei from the seat of power is not anywhere in the offing. The regime has honed its skills in perpetuating its existence despite widespread disaffection among the population by a combination of welfare provisions and ruthless suppression. Amnesty International reported that more than 100 people have been killed during the course of the protest. The Islamic regime has no misgivings whatsoever in killing its own people when they pose a threat to its legitimacy.

The way forward

As Iran faces a daunting challenge to its power from within and without, it is high time that the swivel-eyed mullahs in Tehran, who have refused to engage with the U.S., understood the importance and indispensability of dialogue and negotiation. Hare-brained attempts at enriching uranium or carrying out attacks in Saudi oil facilities are not doing the Iranian people any good. If Iran continues to act in such a reckless manner, the greatest threat to its existence would come not from Washington, but from within Iran itself. Getting back to the negotiating table is Iran’s only way out.